In 2025, China's ethyl acetate market will show a low-level consolidation trend, accompanied by a phased rebound and shock. Production capacity expansion drives output to increase, while the decline in upstream raw material prices drives costs to weaken, and downstream demand grows simultaneously. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand will continue in 2026, the cost side will remain low, and the market price will maintain a bottom fluctuation pattern.
In 2025, the price of ethyl acetate showed an overall low-level consolidation trend, and the price fluctuation range was significantly narrowed compared with that in 2024. Taking the Jiangsu market as an example, the annual average price was 5,134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.7% month-on-month, and the price fluctuation range was 4,950-5,350 yuan/ton. From a cyclical perspective, the price in 2025 continued the relatively low level since the fourth quarter of 2021. The price fluctuation during the year was mainly affected by changes in supply and demand: First, after the National Day holiday, the downstream centralized replenishment was superimposed on the Jiangsu Thorpe plant for maintenance, which pushed up the price to a high of 5,350 yuan/ton during the year; second, in mid-to-late August, affected by the commissioning of the Jingmen plant and the decline in the price of acetic acid, the price fell back to the low of 4,950 yuan
The main factors driving the price fluctuations of ethyl acetate are changes in supply and demand, as well as the guidance of raw material market prices.
Direct impact of fluctuations in raw material prices. Ethyl acetate, as a bulk chemical, is closely related to the supply and demand of its upstream main raw materials. The current process path is still dominated by the esterification reaction of acetic acid and ethanol. In 2025, affected by the increase in the supply side, the price of acetic acid as a whole will remain low, showing a significant decline compared with 2024. At the same time, the ethanol market, which is another major raw material, is also facing structural contradictions between supply and demand, and the price is showing a downward trend. Specifically, taking the East China market as an example, the average price of acetic acid during the year was 2615 yuan/ton, down 15.21% from the average price in 2024. The average price of 95% ethanol in northern Jiangsu in 2025 was 5357.56 yuan/ton, down 9.36% from 2024.
In 2025, China's ethyl acetate industry ushered in a new round of capacity expansion. Ningxia Ruiyuan plant with an annual output of 200,000 tons, Jingmen Qianxin plant with an annual output of 280,000 tons, and Henan Ruibai ethyl acetate-anhydrous ethanol co-production project have all been successfully put into operation, promoting the total production capacity of the industry to further increase. At the same time, raw material prices remain at a relatively low range, which significantly reduces the production cost of the industry, making ethyl acetate more prominent in the competitive advantage of domestic and foreign solvent markets, becoming an important driving force for output growth. In 2025, the annual output reached 2.738 million tons, an increase of about 358,000 tons, an increase of 15%.
The price of ethyl acetate has remained relatively low in recent years, driven by multiple factors such as raw material price fluctuations, device expansion and production technology improvement. This market environment further highlights its price advantage and drives the growth of downstream consumption. In 2025, the total consumption of ethyl acetate in China will be about 2.05 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons from 2024, an increase of about 9.6%, which is less than the growth rate of supply.
At present, the ethyl acetate market in our country presents an obvious contradiction between supply and demand. On the one hand, the market is relatively mature, and the expansion speed of production capacity far exceeds the growth rate of demand, resulting in increasingly fierce market competition; on the other hand, downstream industries are mostly end point products, and demand growth is significantly affected by macroeconomic fluctuations and industry prosperity. This state of supply and demand imbalance is difficult to change in the short term, and the price trend and corporate profitability will face continuous pressure. The supply and demand pressure of upstream acetic acid and ethanol has not decreased in recent years, which will also have a linkage effect on the market price of ethyl acetate. At the same time, as a typical chemical product, the ethyl acetate market is highly sensitive to the macroeconomic environment and policy trends. Global economic conditions, trade policies, energy prices and other macro factors will have a profound impact on the industry.
In 2026, China's ethyl acetate production capacity is expected to continue to grow, mainly due to the commissioning of new plants in Huizhou Yuxin and Sichuan Ruibai in the first and second quarters of 2025. The release of new capacity will further expand market supply and intensify market competition. Although downstream rigid demand also has an increasing trend, the growth rate of demand may not be as fast as the growth rate of supply, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to persist, putting pressure on market prices. Secondly, in 2026, the cost side is expected to continue to operate at a low level, and the average price is lower than the 2025 level.
Overall, it is expected that the price fluctuation range of ethyl acetate market in 2026 will be relatively narrow, or between 4900 and 5300 yuan/ton, making it difficult for unilateral prices to continue.
